It’s fascinating that Rolls-Royce is the largest holding in the Sequoia Fund, especially given the historical significance of that investment firm. The fact that Warren Buffett’s recommendation led to the creation of Sequoia Fund and that it still sticks to Buffett’s long-term investment strategy speaks volumes about the fund’s track record and approach. Here’s an in-depth analysis of why Rolls-Royce could be a worthy investment, and the reasons behind your cautious stance as we head into 2025.
Sequoia’s Long-Term Growth Thesis
The Sequoia Fund seems to have an optimistic outlook on Rolls-Royce, based on two key growth drivers:
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Engine Innovation in Civil Aerospace: Rolls-Royce’s civil aerospace division (around 50% of total revenues) is benefiting from the resurgence of air travel after the pandemic. Despite recovery already occurring in flying hours, Rolls-Royce’s focus on engine technology innovation—especially in areas like sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and electric aircraft technology—positions the company well for long-term growth.
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Defence Contracts: The defence segment presents a longer-term growth opportunity, particularly as governments worldwide are increasing their defence spending. The UK Ministry of Defence and other international governments have committed to substantial investments in defence technology, and Rolls-Royce’s expertise in this area could yield significant returns in the coming years. Though these contracts might take time to materialize, Sequoia’s strategy involves thinking beyond immediate growth and capitalizing on future potential.
Valuation and Cash Flow Considerations
Sequoia’s valuation thesis is based on Rolls-Royce’s potential to generate free cash flow (FCF) in the next four years, which could amount to roughly half its current market cap. At the time of Sequoia’s letter, the stock was valued at £3.01, but it has since surged to £5.75, altering the risk-reward dynamic.
While this significant increase in share price could reduce the upside potential compared to earlier in the year, the company’s ability to generate substantial free cash flow from non-core asset sales and working capital improvements means that the stock could still provide a decent return, even at this higher price.
Risks also remain, particularly those related to flying hours. Disruptions such as another pandemic, geopolitical tensions, or unforeseen global events could weigh heavily on demand for Rolls-Royce’s engines. The company’s vulnerable revenue sources in civil aerospace mean that any shock to the airline industry could directly affect Rolls-Royce’s performance.
Why You’re Cautious About Buying Rolls-Royce Now
Your reluctance to buy Rolls-Royce shares going into 2025 makes sense for a few reasons:
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Stock Price Surge: The sharp increase in Rolls-Royce’s stock price from £3.01 to £5.75 means that the stock is no longer trading at a deeply undervalued level. While Sequoia still sees long-term potential, the upside from here is relatively more limited, and the margin of safety has diminished. When a stock rises significantly, the risk of entering at a higher price becomes more pronounced, especially if the growth drivers are already priced in.
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Uncertainty in Civil Aerospace: Despite the recovery in flying hours, the aviation sector remains vulnerable to external disruptions (e.g., pandemics, economic downturns, or geopolitical crises). If the airline industry faces headwinds, it could lead to slower-than-expected growth for Rolls-Royce’s core aerospace business.
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Defence Market Volatility: Although the defence segment presents a compelling growth opportunity, this market can also be volatile. Government contracts can be delayed, and military budgets can fluctuate, affecting long-term growth projections. A recession or changing political priorities could also impact spending on defence technology.
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Risk-Reward Trade-off: The increased share price now offers a lower risk-reward ratio compared to earlier in 2025, making the stock less attractive for new investors. Sequoia’s strategy of holding steady without adding to its stake seems to reflect a cautious optimism, acknowledging that while Rolls-Royce’s future is promising, the current valuation might not present as much upside.
Should You Buy Rolls-Royce in 2025?
You’re wise to be cautious about buying Rolls-Royce shares at their current price, particularly after such a strong rally. However, long-term potential remains intact, driven by engine innovation and defence contracts. The stock may still offer value for patient investors who can tolerate volatility and have confidence in the company’s future growth drivers.
That said, the current valuation might not be compelling enough for new buyers, especially if you’re looking for a margin of safety. With Sequoia holding steady, it might be prudent to wait for a potential pullback or look for a more attractive entry point in the future, particularly if the stock faces any short-term setbacks in aerospace demand or broader economic challenges.
Ultimately, it’s about balancing the potential for long-term gains against the risks of entering at a higher valuation. Would you consider waiting for a dip before making a move, or are you still on the lookout for other potential stocks with better risk-reward ratios?
